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@np the state results are based on an incumbent labor govt sweeping to power after 12 years of liberal rule. plu albo was in hi honeymoon having just won the aston by election a week later.
High Street
Those voters in Longueville etc. Had every reason to NOT vote Liberal lsst time between a Teal and a high profile Labor campaign. There are also people that will haved voted Teal but not vote Labor – they will go Green or back to the Libs. I do agree that this will be the first time that many voters will be subject to a full Labor campaign but I am not sure it is going to yield much.
@Mick no matter how many times you say it, it isn’t going to come true.
Every single factor points to this being picked up by the Liberals.
Not only is the seat technically Liberal now – we are entering an election with a nationwide swing to the Coalition.
What makes you think Bennelong will buck the trend?
@John from 4 Jan.
Could you please point out where my previous statement was not true? I have re-read it and stand by it. Read it closely to see what it is actually saying, not what you infer it to say…
This nonsense about it being technically a LIB seat, therefore that is a factor. Every analyst who has calculated a 0.1% margin acknowledges there is a margin of error on that calc. For the purposes of forecasting the result in the coming election it is essentially tied. A Labor incumbent with a sophomore surge is of greater impact than a 0.1% margin.
And @Wombater and @John – NO SWING IS UNIFORM. Number 1. of rule of election analysis. In 2019, pretty sure there was a swing in NSW away from ALP yet North Shore swung to ALP by 4.3%!!!
Re this seat to ultra marginal does not guarantee a change. If there is a swing to the liberals in nsw.. this makes it hard to retain. It is hard to estimate esp with the new areas added People have under estimated the “Alexander ” factor which I think boosted the liberal vote by 5% or more.
@ high Street yes but the state swing and the fact the libs have a good candidate plus you remove the scomo factor of 2022 pushes it in the libs favour. First term mps can and have been defeated.